‘The Tweed Update’ by Roger Tweed

Travel Time with Roger Tweed

Roger Tweed

Recovering But Not Catching Up Our portfolio continued its positive trend over the past three weeks, but once again failed to keep pace with the S&P 500.  Strong gains in Boeing (BA), Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ), and News Corp. (NWSA) were offset by pull backs in Whole Foods Market (WFM), SPDR S&P China (GXC), and SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).  Over the past three weeks, our portfolio gained 1.72% while the S&P 500 gained 2.07%.  Since its January 10 inception our portfolio has gained 1.4% while the S&P 500 has gained 5.8%. 

Boeing was our best performer since February 15, with an 8% gain.  The company has proposed fixes for the battery overheating problems experienced by 787 Dreamliner airliners.  Despite an NTSB report that could not identify the cause of the problems, traders believe that the path to a solution is in place.

Japan Hedged Equity gained 7% as the G20 chose not to criticize Japan for its currency devaluation program.  The weakening Yen has made Japanese exports more affordable and has driven the Nikkei average to new highs.  News Corp. gained 6% as some details of the spin off of its publishing and print businesses was announced.  The spin off is expected to take place in June.  Japan Hedged Equity and News Corp. are our best performing positions with gains of over 12%.

Whole Foods lost 3.5%, continuing its downward trend after rival Fresh Market (TFM) reported poor quarterly numbers.  Whole Foods shares sold off in February after the company narrowed its guidance (while affirming its overall  2013 earnings estimate).  I believe that the recent selling is an overreaction.  SPDR S&P China lost 2% as Chinese New Year doldrums followed by a Central Government announcement of curbs on real estate speculation led to selling.  Newly announced defense and infrastructure spending programs did see shares rally in recent sessions.  S&P Gold Trust lost 2% as the price of gold has fallen to $1,576 per ounce.  Despite the accommodative posture of central banks around the world, there are no signs of inflation to drive gold prices higher.

Although our Facebook (FB) shares lost 1.3%, recent technical analyst reports heralded by Jim Cramer on CNBC have indicated that the stock has bottomed and could head higher.  The company is growing earnings by 30%, and may be poised to snap back.  Facebook has a large shareholder base, some of whom are looking to get out on any strength, and that is what I believe is holding the shares below $30 at the moment.  If nothing else, stability in Facebook will allow our portfolio to go higher.

2013 MODEL PORTFOLIO

                                                       (As of March 8)

Stock          Amount             Change                  Index          Amount            Change

F                  $    649.00                  (7.4%)              FB                $    894.72                   (11.2%)   

BRK-B        $    725.41                       8.7%           BGS              $    701.96                     (2.9%)

BA               $    731.07                   4.3%               NWSA          $    794.82                12.3%

AIG             $    752.02                   9.5%                   GLD         $    610.84                 (7.1%)

GE              $    784.41                  10.9%                  GXC         $    659.25                 (5.6%)

AGNC         $    714.34                   3.9%                               DXJ              $    777.42                 12.4%

WFM           $    680.00                 (5.1%)             

 

STOCK TOTAL – $ 6,713.41REIT/ETF TOTAL – $ 2,761.85; CASH TOTAL – $ 664.60

 

GRAND TOTAL                $  10,139.86  GAIN/LOSS since 1/10/13              1.40%

S&P 500 Index                                          GAIN/LOSS since 1/10/13                 5.78%