‘The Tweed Update’ by Roger Tweed

Roger TweedThe 2013 Portfolio Wins By A Nose – Our 2013 Portfolio rode a strong final four weeks from leaders Boeing (BA) and Facebook (FB) to outperform the S&P 500 for the year ended January 9, 2014.  Although the S&P 500 gained 3.5% over the final four weeks while our portfolio gained 1.9%, from its January 10, 2013 inception through January 9, 2014, our portfolio gained 25.8% while the S&P 500 gained 25.34%.  I am very pleased to have once again outperformed the S&P 500.

Boeing was our top performer with a gain of over 82%.  Facebook was our second best performer gaining over 81%.  One year ago, when overheating batteries were about to temporarily ground the 787 Dreamliner and Facebook was thought of as a company that hadn’t done anything right since before its disastrous initial public offering, it took some courage to include them in a portfolio (using my own money) whose performance would be reported publicly.  

Other notable winners were insurer AIG (AIG), which gained over 44%, Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA), which gained 37%, and Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ), which gained 30%.

Our losing positions were mortgage-REIT American Capital Agency (AGNC), which lost over 36%, and ETFs SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which lost 28%, and SPDR S&P China (GXC), with a loss of 4%.  Higher interest rates hurt all REITs as well as gold, and a slowing Chinese economy hurt the China ETF.

For 2014, I have selected stocks from the industrial, financial, technology, and travel sectors while looking for individual stocks or REITs that have been beaten down despite growing underlying businesses.  Also included are an ETF that invests in the developed Euro Zone economies, a health care REIT, and an amusement park limited partnership.  I initiated this $10,000 real-money portfolio on January 9.  Our 2014 stock positions are: Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Bank of America (BAC), International Paper (IP), Goodyear (GT), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Facebook, JetBlue Airways (JBLU), Hertz Global (HTZ), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), and LinnCo, LLC (LNCO).  The portfolio also includes health care REIT Ventas (VTR), amusement park MLP Cedar Fair (FUN), and Vanguard FTSE Europe (VGK).  Fifth Third and Bank of America will benefit from rising interest rates, International Paper and Goodyear will profit from expanding world economies, Hewlett-Packard is in the middle of its turnaround, while the stock of Anadarko, LinnCo, and Ventas seem to be beginning their turnarounds, Facebook continues its rapid growth, and JetBlue, Hertz and Cedar Fair continue to gain from booming travel and leisure demand.

2014 MODEL PORTFOLIO
(As of January 17)

Stock Amount Change Index Amount Change
FITB $    840.45 (0.3%) FB $    731.90 (3.3%)
IP $    773.44 (1.5%) JBLU $    813.54 0.5%
BAC $    833.49 0.6% FUN $    308.46 (1.2%)
APC $    800.60 1.2% VGK $    762.97 0.2%
GT $    760.43 (5.5%) VTR $    853.44 4.3%
LNCO $    818.74 (1.3%) HTZ $    785.32 (2.9%)
HPQ $    864.20 6.4%

 

STOCK TOTAL – $ 8,022.11; REIT/ETF TOTAL – $ 1,924.87; CASH TOTAL – $  38.57
GRAND TOTAL $   9,985.55 GAIN/LOSS since 1/9/14                (0.14%)
S&P 500 Index GAIN/LOSS since 1/9/14 nil