Economics

‘The Tweed Update’ by Roger Tweed

Saturday, November 1st, 2014
Guest Author Roger Tweed

Guest Author Roger Tweed

Back Where We Started – Our portfolio emerged from the carnage of the past five weeks in worse shape than the S&P 500. Double-digit declines in Hertz Global (HTZ), Linn Co., LLC (LNCO), Goodyear (GT), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), and JetBlue Airways (JBLU) caused our portfolio to give up all its gains for the year. Over the past five weeks, our portfolio dropped 9.6% while the S&P 500 fell 5%. Since its January 9 inception, our portfolio is flat while the S&P 500 has gained 2.68%.

Only one of our stocks went up over the past five weeks: health care REIT Ventas (VTR), which climbed 8.5%. Ventas’ 4.4% dividend and impressive earnings and revenue growth are attractive, especially in turbulent markets. (more…)

‘The Tweed Update’ by Roger Tweed for October 2014

Friday, September 26th, 2014
Guest Author Roger Tweed

Guest Author Roger Tweed

A Tough Stretch

Our portfolio was hurt by growing market concerns over the past three weeks and, as a result, lost ground to the S&P 500. Large losses in Hertz Global (HTZ), Ventas (VTR), and Anadarko Petroleum (APC) could not be overcome by gains in International Paper (IP), Bank of America (BAC), and Facebook (FB). Over the past three weeks, our portfolio fell 1.3% while the S&P 500 lost 0.1%. Since its January 9 inception, our portfolio has risen 10.65%, while the S&P 500 has gained 8.06%.

Stock market traders are now increasingly concerned that interest rates will increase earlier in 2015 than previously expected, and this had a negative effect on the portfolio overall. For example, health care REIT Ventas lost 6.7%, as higher interest rates make high yield investments like REITs less attractive. However, the prospect of higher rates positively impacted Bank of America, up 4%, and Fifth Third Bancorp, up 1.6%, because higher interest rates allow banks to make more money on the spread between interest paid out to depositors and the interest paid to the bank on loans made to customers. (more…)

‘The Tweed Report’ by Guest Author Roger Tweed

Thursday, August 28th, 2014
Guest Author Roger Tweed

Guest Author Roger Tweed

Come Fly Away – Our portfolio again outperformed the S&P 500 over the past seven weeks. Big gains from JetBlue Airways (JBLU) and Facebook (FB) spearheaded our portfolio’s almost 2% gain, while the S&P 500 gained 0.15%. Although geopolitical contributed to losses in Goodyear (GT), Vanguard FTSE Europe (VGK), and International Paper (IP), the majority of our positions had gains during the period. Since its January 9 inception, our portfolio has risen 12.18%, while the S&P 500 has gained 8.21%.

JetBlue is now our best performing position, following its 15.7% gain over the past seven weeks. The stock was helped by falling oil prices and an upgrade from an analyst who noted that the company will be making changes in its services to emphasize profit. JetBlue is already one of the more profitable airlines.   (more…)

‘The Tweed Update’ by Guest Author Roger Tweed

Thursday, July 31st, 2014
Guest Author Roger Tweed

Guest Author Roger Tweed

Continuing to Climb – Our 2014 portfolio, along with the major averages, overcame the Middle East turmoil and continued to post gains over the past three weeks. Riding a snap back in shares of Hertz Global (HTZ), along with gains in JetBlue Airways (JBLU), Goodyear (GT), Linn Co., LLC (LNCO), and International Paper (IP), the portfolio rose 2.78% since June 13. The S&P 500 gained 2.54% in the same period. Since its January 9 inception, our portfolio has risen 10.07%, while the S&P 500 has gained 8.05%.

Hertz was our best performer with a gain of 9.2%. To me, Hertz’ gain was simply a bounce back from the early June plunge suffered when Hertz announced its unreliable accounting issues and need to restate previous yearly results. Since the company has not commented on its financial issues since early June, this move is not based on any real information. I would continue to stay away from Hertz. JetBlue rose 6.5% as fiscal 2014 earnings estimates were raised and Zack’s Equity Research upgraded the stock to a buy. (more…)

‘The Tweed Update’ by Roger Tweed

Friday, June 27th, 2014
Guest Author Roger Tweed

Guest Author Roger Tweed

Tranquil Waters- Our 2014 portfolio took advantage of the very calm trading environment of the past three weeks to post a gain of 3.16%. More significantly, when stocks came under pressure on June 11 and 12, our positions weathered the storm and held on to most of their gains. In contrast, the S&P 500 gained 1.87% in the same period. Since its January 9 inception, our portfolio has risen 7.1%, while the S&P 500 has gained 5.4%.

Our biggest gainer since May 23 was JetBlue Airways (JBLU) which rose 12.3%. The end of winter weather problems, and the carrier’s introduction of its Mint premium service, combined to pique traders’ interest in this laggard of the airline sector. Linn Co., LLC (LNCO), picked up 9% as oil prices rose and the company took steps to shore up its 10% payout. (more…)

‘The Tweed Update’ by Roger Tweed

Friday, May 30th, 2014
Guest Author Roger Tweed

Guest Author Roger Tweed

Rough and Tumble – Like the major averages, our 2014 Portfolio bounced around between gains and losses over the past five weeks. In the end, strong showings from JetBlue Airways (JBLU), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Hertz (HTZ), and Facebook (FB) overcame a big loss in Bank of America (BAC), and losses in Goodyear (GT) and LinnCo, LLC. (LNCO), to record a gain of 1.1%. During the same period, the S&P 500 gained 1.9%. Since our portfolio’s January 9 inception, it has risen 3.81% while the S&P 500 has gained 3.43%.

JetBlue led the portfolio, gaining 5.7%. After the company reported first quarter earnings and revenue that missed estimates in late April, the shares were punished. Since then they have recovered nicely as investors attributed the misses to bad weather in the Northeast, and to Easter and Passover taking place in the second quarter of 2014 versus the first quarter of 2013. (more…)

‘The Tweed Update’ by Roger Tweed

Tuesday, April 29th, 2014
Guest Author Roger Tweed

Guest Author Roger Tweed

OUR 2014 PORTFOLIO

Through the Ringer – Our 2014 Portfolio rode the same roller coaster as the markets over the past four weeks, with individual positions falling brutally for one or two days followed by sharp advances in many cases. An 18% advance in the shares of Anadarko Petroleum (APC) was completely negated by sell-offs in Facebook (FB), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), and Bank of America (BAC). But a 9% advance in medical REIT Ventas (VTR) combined with dividend payments and other share price gains to drive the portfolio to a gain of 0.3% since March 21. The S&P 500 lost 0.1% during that time period. Since our portfolio’s January 9 inception, it has risen 2.74% while the S&P 500 has gained 1.49%. (more…)

‘The Tweed Update’ by Roger Tweed

Tuesday, April 1st, 2014
Guest Author Roger Tweed

Guest Author Roger Tweed

Still in the Lead-

Our 2014 Portfolio held onto its lead over the S&P 500 during the past four weeks. Since February 21, our portfolio was essentially flat, with solid gains from Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Bank of America (BAC), and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), being offset by large losses in LinnCo, LLC (LNCO), International Paper (IP), and JetBlue Airways (JBLU). During the same period, the S&P 500 gained 1.7%. Since our portfolio’s January 9 inception, it has risen 2.44% while the S&P 500 has gained 1.58%.

Fifth Third led the portfolio with a gain of 9.1%. Regional banks are currently in the sweet spot as they are less affected by international or even national financial issues that can negatively impact money center banks. At the same time, the benefits to domestic banks from higher U.S. interest rates will make regional banks like Fifth Third more profitable. Bank of America was our second-best performer, rising 7.8%. As the tensions over Crimea moderated, the shares of large banks like Bank of America began to recover. Then, the Federal Reserve’s hint of higher interest rates earlier than expected, combined with a successful round of stress tests, gave a further boost to large bank share prices. (more…)

‘The Tweed Update’ by Roger Tweed

Friday, February 28th, 2014
Guest Author Roger Tweed

Guest Author Roger Tweed

Out in Front – Our 2014 Portfolio jumped ahead of the S&P 500 over the past five weeks.  Strong showings from Facebook (FB) and Goodyear (GT) overcame selling in Bank of America (BAC) and flat performance from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), JetBlue Airways (JBLU), and LinnCo, LLC (LNCO) to record a gain of 2.6% since January 17.  The S&P 500 lost 0.1% in that time period.  Since its January 9 inception, our portfolio has gained 2.43% while the S&P 500 has lost 0.06%.

Facebook was our best performer, gaining almost 22%.  After reporting stellar fourth quarter earnings and revenues on January 29, the shares continued higher despite the February 20 announcement of the controversial $16 billion acquisition of mobile messaging app WhatsApp.  Although Facebook is paying a huge price, the acquisition is further evidence that the company intends to dominate the mobile space. (more…)

‘The Tweed Update’ by Roger Tweed

Thursday, January 30th, 2014

Roger TweedThe 2013 Portfolio Wins By A Nose – Our 2013 Portfolio rode a strong final four weeks from leaders Boeing (BA) and Facebook (FB) to outperform the S&P 500 for the year ended January 9, 2014.  Although the S&P 500 gained 3.5% over the final four weeks while our portfolio gained 1.9%, from its January 10, 2013 inception through January 9, 2014, our portfolio gained 25.8% while the S&P 500 gained 25.34%.  I am very pleased to have once again outperformed the S&P 500.

Boeing was our top performer with a gain of over 82%.  Facebook was our second best performer gaining over 81%.  One year ago, when overheating batteries were about to temporarily ground the 787 Dreamliner and Facebook was thought of as a company that hadn’t done anything right since before its disastrous initial public offering, it took some courage to include them in a portfolio (using my own money) whose performance would be reported publicly.   (more…)

‘The Tweed Update’ by Roger Tweed

Wednesday, January 1st, 2014

Roger TweedBack to Life

Over the past three weeks, our portfolio came back to life largely due to Facebook (FB), our biggest holding, gaining over 15% when it was named to join the S&P 500 and S&P 100.  Our only other positions in the black since November 22 were AIG (AIG), Whole Foods (WFM), and News Corporation (NWSA), but these showed only fractional gains.  During this period, our portfolio gained 0.9% while the S&P 500 lost 1.6%.  Since its January 10 inception, our portfolio has risen 23.46%, while the S&P 500 has gained 21.06%.  (more…)

Travel Time with Roger Tweed – ‘A Week in Minnesota’

Monday, December 2nd, 2013

Roger Tweed

At the beginning of August, I was able to spend a week with my friend Cam and his family.  They have lived in the Twin Cities area for many years, and have a lovely home with a back yard pool and Cam’s extensive garden.  On this trip, Cam and I planned to visit International Falls and Lake Itasca, and to stop at as many Diners, Drive-ins, and Dives locations as we could, including a return visit to Gordy’s Hi Hat restaurant in Cloquet, MN.

On Tuesday, August 6, I flew from Washington, DC to Minneapolis on Delta.  I purchased my round trip flight, along with my rental car, through Orbitz for $688.  The package deal reduced the cost of the rental car by about $70.  I had an 11:45 am flight from DCA to MSP.  Mid-day lines for security at DCA were not too bad.  Everyone was on board by 11:39, but we didn’t push back until 11:49, four minutes late.  The flight was uneventful, and I managed to complete both the easy and the hard Sudoku puzzles in the in-flight magazine.  As we approached MSP you could see Target Field (home of the Minnesota Twins) and the Metrodome (former home of the Minnesota Vikings and Twins) off of the left side of the aircraft, an old warhorse MD-90.  Despite our late take off, we landed five minutes early.  My rental car was a Mazda 3, and I was very impressed with the front seat legroom.  My GPS took a while to catch up with the fact that I was no longer in Virginia, but it snapped into action just in time for me to avoid a traffic back-up on I 494, when it suggested that I exit onto MN 77 and then take MN 62 before getting onto I 35 for my trip through Minneapolis and into suburban Mounds View.  (more…)

The Tweed Update by Roger Tweed

Tuesday, October 29th, 2013

Roger TweedStretching the Lead – Our portfolio again outperformed the S&P 500 during the past five weeks as all of our stock positions showed gains.  Our only losing positions since September 6 were American Capital Agency (AGNC) and SPDR Gold (GLD), while the trio of Whole Foods Market (WFM), Facebook (FB), and Boeing (BA) each gained over 11%.  Since September 6, our portfolio gained 5.2% while the S&P 500 gained 2.9%.  Since its January 10 inception our portfolio has gained 21.84% while the S&P 500 has gained 16.14%.

Whole Foods led the portfolio with a gain of 12%.  The high-end grocer recently announced the introduction of its own line of pet foods and plans to open stores in Chicago and Newark, and also received an analyst’s Buy recommendation.  Our Whole Foods shares have gained 37%.  Facebook gained 11% even though the shares plunged almost 12% from October 7 to October 9 when escalating Government shutdown and debt ceiling fears dragged down the market.  Facebook’s stock price has risen so dramatically since its July earnings report that the upcoming October 30 earnings report will need to be impressive to maintain its strong momentum.  Facebook is our best performing position with a gain of 56%.  (more…)

The Tweed Update by Roger Tweed

Wednesday, September 25th, 2013

Roger TweedTaking the Lead Our portfolio is now outperforming the S&P 500!  Propelled almost entirely by Facebook’s (FB) continued powerful momentum, our portfolio gained 0.8% in the five weeks since August 2, while the S&P 500 lost 3.2%.  Strong showings by SPDR Gold (GLD) and SPDR China (GXC) also contributed.  Our only other non-cash positions to gain ground were American Capital Agency (AGNC) and Twenty First Century Fox (FOXA).  Since its January 10 inception our portfolio has gained 15.80% while the S&P 500 has gained 12.87%.

Our Facebook shares followed-up on their 56% gain last month to gain almost 16% since August 2.  The stock has gone virtually straight up since its stellar quarterly report on July 24, and is now the best performing position in the portfolio.  With the report showing solid earnings and revenue coming from mobile users, any news about Facebook is now seen in a positive light by traders.      (more…)

Travel Time with Roger Tweed- Kalamazoo and the Corvair Convention

Saturday, September 14th, 2013

Roger TweedIn mid-July, my friend Jon and I traveled to Kalamazoo, MI to attend the CORSA (Corvair Society of America) National Convention and sell copies of “Lifemobile”, his novel about how a 1965 Corvair Corsa brought a father and son together, to reconnect with some acquaintances from past Corvair events, and to see some sights in West Michigan and Pennsylvania.  Jon describes his book in this You Tube video recorded on July 20:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffLI8jtKZ80

July 17 was Jon’s birthday, and I drove from Arlington, VA to his Charlottesville, VA apartment so we could get an early start the next morning.  I left my house a bit after 3 pm so I could use Interstate 66 before rush hour restrictions set in.  No big traffic problems on I 66 or US 29 all the way down, and I was in Charlottesville before 5 pm.  Since I wasn’t scheduled to arrive at Jon’s apartment until 7 pm, I stopped at the Walmart on US 29 to cool off, check prices, and walk around the store.  Just before 6 pm I called Jon and told him I’d be right over.  Street parking is tight around his building during the day, and there were no available spaces when I first drove past.  But a space opened up during my first trip around the block, and after I pulled in Jon came out to meet me.  His building was completed in 2010, and is in the north part of downtown, 2 blocks from the downtown mall.  (more…)

The Tweed Update by Roger Tweed

Friday, August 30th, 2013

Roger TweedTurnaround – What a difference a month makes!  After a stellar past four weeks, our portfolio has pulled to within two percentage points of the performance (since January 10) of the S&P 500, versus four percentage points on July 5.  All of our positions, except for Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ), gained ground over the past four weeks.  But the real driver of the improved performance of our portfolio is Facebook (FB) and its 56% gain for the period.  Since July 5, our portfolio gained 8.4% while the S&P 500 gained 4.8%.  Since its January 10 inception our portfolio has gained 14.91% while the S&P 500 has gained 16.58%.  (more…)

The Tweed Update by Roger Tweed

Wednesday, July 24th, 2013

Roger TweedA Surprising Win – Our portfolio managed to recover more quickly than the S&P 500 over the past four weeks, gaining 1.1% while the index lost 0.7%.  Although June was brutal for mortgage REIT American Capital Agency (AGNC), SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), and SPDR China (GXC), our portfolio overcame these losses on the strong performance of B&G Foods (BGS), Ford (F), Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ), Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA) and News Corp. (NWSA) (the two new companies created by the split of the former News Corp.), and a gain from Facebook (FB).  Since its January 10 inception our portfolio has gained 6.02% while the S&P 500 has gained 10.13%.

Our stocks were led by B&G Foods, which gained 17.7%.  The company’s acquisition of Pirate Brands, makers of healthy snacks under the Pirate’s Booty label, was well received by analysts and the stock has restored its image as a fast-growing, high earning food company.  Japan Hedged Equity gained 6.9% as the Nikkei snapped back from its 20% slide in May, as traders are once again betting that the Abe government’s unprecedented monetary easing will continue and will produce higher inflation and growth.  Ford gained 6.2% as U.S. sales grew 13% in June, F-Series pickup sales (the largest contributor to Ford’s bottom line) grew 24% in June, and sales in China grew by 44% in June.  (more…)

The Tweed Update by Roger Tweed

Sunday, June 30th, 2013

Roger TweedFalling Further – Our portfolio followed the S&P 500 straight down from the May 21 all-time closing high.  Unfortunately, the portfolio did not recover as sharply as the index when it bounced off its 50-day moving average on June 6, nor did it rise as smartly as the S&P 500 did on June 7, following the May employment report.  Over the past four weeks our portfolio lost 1.4% while the S&P 500 gained 0.6%.  Our stock positions gained 1.1% (despite a 12.7% loss in Facebook (FB)), but a 14.9% loss in mortgage REIT American Capital Agency (AGNC) combined with a 6.8% loss in our ETF positions (SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), SPDR S&P China (GXC), and Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)) put our portfolio on the losing side of the ledger since May 10.  Since its January 10 inception our portfolio has gained 4.89% while the S&P 500 has gained 12.06%.   (more…)

The Tweed Update by Roger Tweed

Saturday, May 25th, 2013

Roger TweedCatching Up Our portfolio had its best run of the year, outperforming the S&P 500 by more than 1% over the past three weeks.  All of our positions except for American Capital Agency (AGNC) gained ground, with Whole Foods (WFM), AIG (AIG), Ford (F), and Boeing (BA) leading the way.  Since April 19, our portfolio gained 6.2% while the S&P 500 gained 5%.  Since its January 10 inception our portfolio has gained 6.4% while the S&P 500 has gained 11.4%.

Whole Foods gained 17% after reporting second quarter earnings and revenues that beat expectations and increasing its full-year earnings guidance.  Fears raised after the company’s first quarter report about declining sales growth were quieted after the company reported a second quarter same store sales increase of 6.9%, and noted that same store sales in the current quarter are showing a 7.4% increase.    (more…)

The Tweed Update by Roger Tweed

Tuesday, April 30th, 2013

Roger TweedCan’t Get Out of Our Own Way While the S&P 500 managed to eke out a gain of 0.3% during the past six weeks despite just suffering its worst weekly loss since November, our portfolio in the same period slipped 1.2%.  An 11% loss in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), combined with 8% losses in GE (GE) and Facebook (FB), could not be overcome by 8% gains in Boeing (BA) and Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ).  Since its January 10 inception our portfolio has gained 0.2% while the S&P 500 has gained 6.1%.

Gold’s collapse has driven our SPDR Gold Trust shares down 17.6% so far, making it our second worst performing position.  I feel that Gold is still a valid part of any portfolio as a hedge against currency swings and world turmoil, but its price can take nasty turns when traders with large margin positions are forced to liquidate, as must have happened when the price of gold continued its plunge on April 14 despite the bombings in Boston.  Facebook’s share price simply refuses to stabilize.  For most of the past six weeks the shares had benefited from favorable reviews of the new Facebook home page for Android devices.  But the shares plunged during the selling of the week of April 14.  To stabilize the share price, Facebook will likely need to deliver an impressive earnings report showing mobile revenue success.  (more…)