Travel Time with Roger Tweed

Travel Time with Roger Tweed

The Arts and Entertainment Magazine is always trying something new for the interest for all our readers. Roger Tweed, who has submitted articles titled Travel Time with Roger Tweed in past issues, is also the publisher of THE TWEED UPDATE. He is now allowing us to run articles from his monthly reports for the interests of investors, and those wanting to know something about the financial markets. We will start this series with the article below


THE TWEED UPDATE (a financial newsletter) by Roger Tweed


Off to a Rough Start Our portfolio failed to keep pace with the S&P 500 over the past five weeks.  Strong performances from GE (GE), AIG (AIG), News Corp. (NWSA), and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) were negated by disappointing earnings guidance from Whole Foods Market (WFM) and B&G Foods (BGS), and a plunge in the shares of Facebook (FB).  Over the past five weeks, our portfolio gained 0.76% while the S&P 500 gained 3.24%.  Since its January 10 inception, our portfolio has lost 0.31% while the S&P 500 has gained 3.64%. 

Our Facebook position lost over 10% after its widely anticipated January 15 announcement of “Graph Search” underwhelmed investors and contributed to two analyst downgrades.  Facebook is our largest holding, so its performance will need to pick up for our portfolio to catch up to the S&P 500.

Whole Foods Market shares fell only 0.6% over the past five weeks, but this had been our best performing position going into its February 14 earnings announcement.  Although the company exceeded all targets for the first quarter 2013, and reaffirmed guidance for the full year, analysts did not like the company narrowing 2013 revenue guidance and the stock sold off 9%.  Our B&G Foods shares fell 3.4% over the past five weeks, but fell almost 7% on February 15 after missing earnings growth targets for the fourth quarter of 2012.  Ford (F) fell 7% as analysts continue to be concerned about European sales declines.

GE was our best performer, with a gain of 10%, as the company announced the sale of its 49% stake in NBCUniversal to Comcast (CMCSA) and increased its share buyback plan.  Analysts like that GE is becoming more of an industrial company.  AIG gained 9% as the financial sector continued to outperform and it was revealed that shares of AIG are owned by 142 hedge funds.  The shares remain well below book value.  News Corp. gained 7% as content providers continued to be favorites of market analysts.  At $28.90, News Corp. shares are at a 52-week high.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) lost 3% as gold has declined due to a lack of worldwide inflation despite the rampant printing of money by central banks.  American Capital Agency (AGNC), our mortgage REIT, gained 5% as the company has been adept at capitalizing on the Federal Reserve’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities.

Despite the portfolio’s rough start, I am encouraged that it could show a gain during a period marked by Facebook’s misstep and the guidance disappointments.



                                                       (As of February 15)

Stock          Amount             Change                  Index          Amount            Change

F                  $    651.00                  (7.1%)              FB                $    906.24                   (10.1%)   

BRK-B         $    698.39                       4.6%           BGS              $    690.92                     (4.4%)

BA               $    675.27                  (3.7%)              NWSA          $    751.40                 6.2%

AIG             $    728.65                   6.1%                  GLD          $    623.04                 (5.2%)

GE               $    768.57                   8.6%                  GXC          $    674.64                 (3.4%)

AGNC         $    715.22                   4.1%                               DXJ              $    726.30                   5%

WFM           $    704.96                 (1.6%)             


STOCK TOTAL – $ 6,575.40REIT/ETF TOTAL – $ 2,739.20; CASH TOTAL – $ 654.09


GRAND TOTAL                $   9,968.69  GAIN/LOSS since 1/10/13               (0.31%)

S&P 500 Index                                          GAIN/LOSS since 1/10/13                 3.64%

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